Africa Infrastructure Outlook · H2 2026
The three questions that will define the next decade of African infrastructure.
The three questions that will define the next decade of African infrastructure — and the deal structures we believe will answer them.
$100bn
Annual financing gap
AfDB, indicative
12
Markets tracked in the Treaty Index
Refreshed quarterly
3
Structural questions
Framed in this Outlook
36 yrs
Engineering heritage informing the view
Since 1980
Executive summary
Four theses, six chapters, one conclusion.
Read as a briefing, not a survey. The chapters follow the questions our clients ask us most.
- Thesis · 01
The $100bn annual infrastructure financing gap is not a demand problem. It is a bankability problem.
- Thesis · 02
Availability-payment structures, backed by escrow and DFI wraps, are how power, transport and social infrastructure get to close.
- Thesis · 03
The next winning platforms will combine engineering heritage with structuring capability. Pure sponsors will struggle. Pure lenders will pass. Owner-operators with balance-sheet skin will lead.
- Thesis · 04
Currency remains the constraint that outranks all others. Local-currency debt markets are shallow but deepening. Blended finance is the bridge.
Two charts that frame the decade
Where the gap is widest — and where it is finally closing.
Sector gap · 2026
Demand versus supply by sector
Annual demand and estimated committed supply, in $bn per year. Sources: AfDB, IEA, WHO. Estimated by Treaty Research.
Trajectory
Financial-close volume, 2020–2028E
Total infrastructure financial-close value across Sub-Saharan Africa, $bn. Dashed line indicates Treaty projection.
Chapters
Six chapters that answer the three questions.
The bankability gap
Why $100bn a year of demand does not translate to $100bn a year of financial close. And what changes when it does.
Read in PDFThe revenue trilemma
Tariff, availability payment, or shadow toll. A decision framework for choosing the right revenue mechanism.
Read in PDFCurrency, the constraint above constraints
A field guide to local-currency structures, DFI wraps and hedges for infra developers.
Read in PDFLand is a project-finance question
How land tenure, community consent and cadastre quality translate directly into project IRR.
Read in PDFThe rise of the owner-operator
Why the next decade of African infrastructure will be led by platforms that combine engineering, capital and asset management under one roof.
Read in PDFSignals to watch, 2026–2028
Twelve forward-looking indicators. What they mean if they move.
Read in PDFPast editions
A rolling institutional view, refreshed twice a year.
The Treaty Outlook has been published continuously since 2024. Older editions remain available as research artefacts.
H1 2025
Africa Infrastructure Outlook 2025
The year of the platform.
H1 2024
Africa Infrastructure Outlook 2024
PPPs after the tariff shock.
Own the analysis
Get the Outlook. Brief your team.
Treaty analysts can present the Outlook to your board or investment committee under NDA.